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History tells us that Deontay Wilder has one way to win a fight and Fury can win any way that works for him on any given night. The idea of Wilder winning a decision is highly unlikely and although it is sitting at a tasty 15.00, it's not worth it unless you have money to burn.
After a controversial draw in their first fight, Fury dominated Wilder before scoring a seventh-round stoppage in the rematch. The rematch included a stipulation that the loser could initiate an immediate third fight, which Wilder did.
After failing to make the fight for more than a year, Fury moved on to try and unify all four recognized heavyweight titles with Anthony Joshua only for Wilder to force the trilogy fight to happen after going to arbitration.
In what was originally seen as somewhat of a gratuitous third meeting due to a contractual obligation has quickly turned into must-see TV as WBC and lineal heavyweight champion Tyson Fury collides with Deontay Wilder in Saturday's pay-per-view trilogy.
"Due to the odds of Wilder, the payout on Wilder is five times the payout on Fury," Blangsted-Barnor said. "So, fair to say we will be cheering on the Englishman. If Wilder does win, then Round 3 would be the absolute worst-case scenario for us.
"The most popular bet by far is the boost of Tyson Fury by TKO/KO/DQ at +100, which would certainly even out the liability on the main market. So the best result for us would be Fury by decision."
Former unified champion Anthony Joshua's upset loss to Oleksandr Usyk two weeks ago flipped the immediate future of the sport's glamour division upside down, which only added to the stakes of a third Fury-Wilder fight, some 20 months after Fury scored a seventh-round TKO in their rematch.
The winner of this unexpected third fight, which takes place inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, could find himself as the power player in the division moving forward as the heavyweight face of record from a commercial standpoint.
The good news for fans is that action is expected regardless of how it all plays out as both have been outspoken about their dislike for one another as Wilder (42-1-1, 41 KOs) seeks revenge for the unfounded accusations he made against Fury (30-0-1, 21 KOs) for cheating back in 2020.
Although Wilder, 35, scored a pair of knockdowns during their controversial split draw in 2018, he has lost the majority of the 19 rounds between the two in the series.
That hasn't slowed his confidence, however, even after being stopped for the first time in their rematch when now-fired assistant trainer Mark Breland threw in the towel to save Wilder from a one-sided beating.
The two bitter rivals will now clash at T-Mobile Arena in Vegas after more than 20 months of Wilder claiming his loss was a result of a conspiracy that included his own corner working against him and Fury cheating after tampering with his gloves and using performance-enhancing drugs.
Wilder has also claimed he suffered extreme fatigue after wearing an elaborate costume during his ring walk that weighed more than 40 pounds.
The undercard is as deep as it gets on the PPV level with each bout carrying a level of interest and each taking place in the heavyweight division. Cuban Frank Sanchez will battle Efe Ajagba in the co-main event between a pair of rising prospects.
Adam Kowancki looks to get his revenge on Robert Helenius after Helenius scored a shocking upset knockout in March 2020. And top American prospect Jared "Big Baby" Anderson takes on veteran Vladimir Tereshkin to kick things off.
The undercard is as deep as it gets on the PPV level with each bout carrying a level of interest and each taking place in the heavyweight division. Cuban Frank Sanchez will battle Efe Ajagba in the co-main event between a pair of rising prospects.
Adam Kowancki looks to get his revenge on Robert Helenius after Helenius scored a shocking upset knockout in March 2020. And top American prospect Jared "Big Baby" Anderson takes on veteran Vladimir Tereshkin to kick things off.
"It's definitely going to be a war but I don't think [Fury] is going to be able to stand toe to toe with me," Wilder told CBS Sports on Thursday. "Even on my worst day, in the condition that I was in, he couldn't get me out of there.
I finished the fight on my feet. I had a disloyal trainer throw in the towel when I had told him for many years before to never throw a towel in. You don't throw a towel in on a warrior, a king like myself. You let him fight to the end because I do have the equalizer."
The 33-year-old Fury enters as the rightful betting favorite after bulking up for the rematch and adding the offensive-based SugarHill Steward as new head trainer.
The change led to Fury eschewing his slick and defensive boxing ways from their first meeting to bring the fight directly to Wilder from the opening bell.
"I quite like Fury by decision," Blangsted-Barnor said. "While he had a very impressive KO last time out, I just think the odds have swayed too far from what they were last time, which was Fury KO +450 and Fury Dec +162.
"He’s very good at outboxing the best of the best, and I think he would be smart to outbox and stay out the way of a dangerous Wilder, who I potentially think underestimated the knockout power of Tyson last fight."
Fury is the rightful favorite but at 1.35 it's a little wide against an opponent who possesses a nuclear weapon in his fists that could detonate at any moment.
Granted, Fury was able to pull himself up off the canvas in the first fight and didn't let Wilder touch him with anything remotely dangerous in the rematch.
Can Usyk bring the power against one of the elite heavyweights and deliver when the lights are shining the brightest?
Fury is the better boxer. We have 19 rounds of data to prove this. No one in the game has the one-punch power of Wilder, very few people in boxing history have.
That power means Wilder is automatically "in" every second of every fight. Wilder's mentality is either a weakness or a strength. Either the stream of excuses is the sign of a man broken by having to suffer the harsh reality that he's a mere mortal.
Or, Wilder is so overwhelmingly confident that he can't fathom a loss by any fair means and is unaffected by having been so thoroughly dominated.
The problem with this is if Wilder doesn't see the flaws he brought to the ring in the first two fights -- and especially the rematch -- he may not have taken any steps to address them.
There's been a lot of talk that Wilder will focus on a body attack in the rematch, but it's easy to see Fury taking advantage of Wilder trying to become a different fighter.
Fury's style is a tough one to replicate in the gym and it's just hard to imagine this fight plays out too differently unless Wilder is able to land some fight-changing bombs.
The break-even point for round bets is 7.5, with the over and under both sitting at -120. Given Wilder's power and Fury having even more data on Wilder than he had when he scored the seventh-round stoppage in the rematch, the under seems like a good play there.
The question becomes: How low of a round total are you willing to move? Under 6.5 is +120 and under 5.5 is +175. It wouldn't seem a smart play to go any lower than that.
The most interesting play may be to combo two grouped round bets for Fury, understanding his likelihood to win and proven ability to hurt Wilder.
Joshua has been in plenty of big fights and this is nothing new for him and should be to handle everything Usyk throws his way.
Visions of David Haye and Wladimir Klitschko from 2011 keep running through my head. I can see Usyk taking minimal risks and not being willing to venture on the inside and attempt to inflict damage on Joshua.
Murray expects the betting volume to be solid, but he said the handle would be much higher if the fight was in July as originally planned. Bettors will be busy firing on college football, the baseball playoffs, and the NFL all weekend.
"We are writing mostly underdog money on Wilder," Murray reported. "That’s pretty standard for a fight like this.
People want to bet small and win big. And Wilder literally has a puncher’s chance. He’s the hardest puncher in the division, which makes him the heaviest hitter in the boxing world.
"It’s just hard to picture him taking out Fury. If that shot he landed in the first fight didn’t do it, I’m not sure what can. And Fury is such a better boxer. We are fine with needing Tyson Fury to win again."
A Joshua win via stoppage at +110 is a tempting proposition because who doesn't fancy someone getting knocked out?
The best play here, though, is the fight going to a decision and we get a replay of Klitschko-Haye..
It's not surprising that the odds are this high in favor of the two-time heavyweight champion because you can make the case that Fury's won both fights.
Yes, the first fight in December 2018 was a split draw, but if you watch the fight back, Fury won 10 of the 12 rounds, with Wilder only securing the other rounds due to knockdowns in the ninth and 12th rounds.
Fury took Wilder's best shots and was able to not only get up but land significant power shots.
Then in the February 2020 rematch, Fury was relentless. He bullied the bully, dominated every round, and turned the tables on Wilder by sending him to the canvas twice as well.
Fury was battering Wilder to the point where Wilder's co-trainer at the time, Mark Breland, had seen enough and threw in the towel, much to the dismay of the former WBC titlist.
To the shock of many people inside the sport, Wilder started making a litany of excuses of why he lost. Instead of acknowledging his defeat and admitting that Fury was the better man that night.
He rang off a number of excuses, including: that Breland shouldn't have thrown in the towel, that his ring outfit was too heavy, that Fury's gloves were loaded and that his water was spiked.
Wilder changed things up coming into the trilogy. After firing Breland, Wilder made former 2014 opponent Malik Scott his new head trainer and put former head man Jay Deas into Breland's position.
Not only did Fury expose Wilder's inability to fight going backwards, he gained a significant psychological edge by standing up to the bigger puncher while using his size and weight advantage to lean all over his wounded foe.
Say it among fans of the sweet science, and you will instantly conjure images of Zale and Graziano, Bowe and Holyfield or Ward and Gatti depending on the ages of the audience.
The Hall of Fame rivals fought three times from 1971 to 1975 and combined for 41 of the most compelling rounds the sport—and particularly the heavyweight division—has ever seen.
Earning admission into the trilogy neighborhood are big men Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder, who will meet for the third time on Saturday in Las Vegas after initially going 12 rounds for a disputed draw in Los Angeles in 2018 and returning for Fury's win by seventh-round stoppage in Las Vegas in 2020.
"He knows he's lost twice and that he's going to lose the third time," Fury said at Wednesday's final pre-fight press conference. "He's in denial, and he's getting knocked out. His legacy is in bits. I knocked him out, and now I'm going to retire him."
Wilder remains a live underdog because of his punching power but also due to the positive changes he made during the nearly two-year break between fights.
Wilder recalibrated the team around him, adding new trainers Malik Scott and Don House. He also posted multiple videos from training camp showing his newfound commitment to body punching.
For Wilder to join Fury as a two-time heavyweight champion, he needs to mix things up. The 2008 Olympic bronze medalist can't be so reliant on his detonating right hand, despite it quite arguably being the most devastating shot in all of boxing.
He possesses a better jab than people think and along with it, a solid left hook that's underrated. If Wilder goes the variety route, he has a good shot at catching Fury.
For the champion, he's just got to be Tyson Fury. Mix things up a little bit to keep Wilder on his toes but still use wrinkles in what he did 20 months ago by going right at Wilder and making him fight off the back foot. Wilder proved in the rematch when you do that, he has no answer.
It's hard to see this fight being any different than what we saw in the rematch. A new trainer doesn't mean Wilder's going to instantly change his stripes.
However, if Fury applies constant pressure and walks Wilder down, it's hard to imagine Wilder staying patient and not trying to swing for the fences to help him get out of trouble. You need at least two fights with a new trainer to fully feel comfortable with what they want you to do.
Wilder has three rounds to get Fury out of there, or it's going to be a long night at the office. Fury's going to not only make it past the third round, but he will stop the "Bronze Bomber" in the first round of the fight and win the trilogy.
Up for grabs for the third consecutive time will be the WBC title strap that Wilder had won and defended 10 times before suffering the first loss of his career in the second fight.
He'll arrive to T-Mobile Arena with new trainer Malik Scott, who was promoted amid Wilder's post-Fury excuse tour that included his bizarre suggestion that previous trainer Mark Breland was secretly working for his foe.
"I went into Deontay's toolbox and pulled everything out that he did well," Scott said.
"I wanted to make sure that we drilled it over and over again. I didn't teach him anything new. Deontay Wilder can do it all. I just pulled some of those things out of him."
The third fight was initially pushed aside in favor of a Fury duel with Anthony Joshua, but Wilder earned a ruling from an arbitrator that mandated he get the third date before Fury and Joshua squared off.
The trilogy fight was then set for June 24 but was postponed when Fury tested positive for COVID-19.
The fight will top a pay-per-view card that's set to begin at 9 p.m. ET and will be distributed by both Fox Sports and ESPN+.
It will cost $79.99 to see how it turns out, but before you lay out cash, three members of the B/R combat sports team—Scott Harris, Tom Taylor and Lyle Fitzsimmons—got together to predict the result.
Wilder has stuck by his assertion that everyone from Fury to the referee, the Nevada commission and even members of his own team contributed to a conspiracy meant to bring him down during their rematch.
And even though he blamed the 40-pound costume he wore to the ring on that night for weakening him during the fight, he still plans on just as elaborate an entrance for Saturday night, as well.
It's a wild juxtaposition to behold. Yet it's clear Wilder isn't worried about what his comments have done for his public reputation, which makes even an armchair psychologist realize it's all part of what fuels him to be his best.
"I don't have nothing to prove," Wilder said. "I'm in a great place, a great state of mind and have always been.
I have a lot of great people around me that have been covering me all this time. There is nothing to prove at all. This right here is redemption, retaliation and retribution; all of the above."
"It just shows you that I'm living in Wilder's mind rent free, the whole time, two years," Fury said. "Every time he looks in the mirror, he sees Tyson Fury.
Every time he goes to bed before he closes his eyes at night, he sees the 'Gypsy King.' And when he wakes up and thinks about it in the morning, he thinks of Tyson Fury. It must be crazy to be obsessed with a man like me, so much of his life. It's just crazy."
Had the best-laid plans of boxing's heavyweight division come to fruition this summer, unified champion Anthony Joshua would have already faced lineal and WBC beltholder Tyson Fury to declare the first undisputed champion of the four-belt era.
This is boxing, however, where nothing ever quite goes to plan. The good news, however, is that the consolation prize offered to fans over the next two weeks in the form of an unofficial four-man tournament to hopefully declare the undisputed best heavyweight of this era early next year appears to be in motion.
I have the same objection to this trilogy fight as most of its naysayers: Tyson Fury is clearly a better boxer than Deontay Wilder.
No matter how you scored their 2018 draw, Fury was obviously the more skilled man in the ring that night.
He made that even clearer in their 2020 rematch, when he battered a bewildered Wilder to a seventh-round stoppage.
It's been almost two years since that second fight, and both men have ostensibly been hard at work for the majority of that time.
But it's difficult to imagine Wilder completely closing the gaping holes in his skill set that left him so exposed in his first two fights with Fury.
He was as evasive as a parking meter last time out. He might be a little more fleet-footed this time around, but it probably won't change much.